Freebie Friday: Does the new manager bounce exist?
Welcome to the weekly Freebie Friday and a look at the term you hear quite often within the game the ‘new manager bounce’. Does it exist, is it a thing and if it is what impact does it have if any?
It’s a term that gets banded around pretty much every time a new manager comes into a club at any level, almost like a breath of fresh air arrives and something most people look forward to because their club hasn’t been doing particularly well.
Not all are well received however, some of that goes on past reputation or for how they like to approach the game despite getting the required results and achieving success. Supporters know how they want to see their side win, usually with style and flair, after all it’s the entertainment business and that’s what we want to see.
Now the reason I’ve picked this particular topic is watching all levels of the non-league game managers are turning over at a high rate in the past few months and it’s interesting to watch and see whether those coming into clubs are seeing this ‘bounce’ happen, whether it’s taken time or it’s yet to be seen.
What gave me the thought was the job currently being done by Bobby Wilkinson at Weymouth in the National League South. When he arrived the Terras were anchored to the bottom of the table staring a double relegation on the face.
Wilkinson arrived in mid-September and there was no bounce immediately, in fact it took until mid-late October for a first league win, the FA Cup form however was blowing teams away but didn’t translate into the National League games. But since the middle of November Weymouth have picked up 13 points from their last five league matches including two impressive away wins at Tonbridge and Worthing. That bounce you could argue took a while to come and whether that was because players needed to adapt to Wilkinson’s ideas or he had to ship out players to get in those who could make a difference I’m not sure.
A similar kind of story for Southend Utd under Phil Brown, looking at a double relegation as well for a club used to losing. Bringing in Kevin Maher looked a very good move but again it took them a long while to bounce winning just two games from his appointment in October to Christmas time.
From Boxing Day it clicked and they went on a superb run for two and a half months finally finishing 13th in the table, again showing it’s not always immediate for things to change, especially in clubs where losing is ingrained in the fabric.
For some the bounce never happens. We can look back to Tim Flowers arriving in a fanfare at Barnet during the pandemic years, hailed as the one who was going to send the Bees back up the table after the disastrous reign of one Peter Beadle.
Nine players came in to help his cause but with a solitary win from 13 games Flowers only lasted three months and certainly a bounce was never seen in that time at The Hive.
We’re still waiting to see if David Unsworth has the bounce at Oldham, like some above here there is a chance as well of a double relegation, and as also noted a club used to losing. It’s a hard mentality to change and with clubs not wanting to take your players either it’s tough to clear the desks and start again.
Flowers had enough experience to know the division, Unsworth doesn’t and I feel it’s a crucial part of the process, it’s an unforgiving league to get out of the right way, easy to get out the wrong way and so far he’s won just two out of 15 games in charge, a record he needs to improve very, very quickly.
Of course though some come straight into a club and it goes perfectly, whether that’s in pre-season or mid-way through, or drags a club away from relegation and into a respectable position. Take Adam Hinshelwood at Worthing a few years ago, having had a previous spell at the club he returned to Woodside Road in 2017 the club were in huge danger of relegation to Step 4 but once Hinsh returned they had a couple of early mini bounces that gave hope and then after New Year the bounces became a bit longer and when there was a blip they bounced again and were safe in the end with about four games to play, a feat that looked very unlikely when Hinshelwood arrived.
Two clubs in the Isthmian League South East Division have recently appointed new managers, Sammy Moore at Faversham Town and Dean Cox at Lancing, the latter appointed today and the former in charge so far for only a game or two. Both sides could do with an immediate bounce to move away from the bottom four and for one of them it needs to happen very quickly as Town are well adrift of safety, certainly a couple there to keep your eye on as the season progresses.
So, in my opinion yes there is a bounce to be seen but it doesn’t always come and that might be just because the new manager actually isn’t a good fit despite his impressive CV or he can’t sweep the deadwood out quick enough to make an impact but it’s nice for supporters when it does happen.
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I think Faversham Town will get a bounce with the appointment of Sammy Moore… although personally I am also hoping that the intelligent and tactically astute Michael Golding can get enough out of his relatively new Corinthian squad to keep them in the Isthmian South East League this year.
I am sure some statto put there has some facts to share! I think one thing is certain, changing the manager doesn’t always work, sometimes clubs get worse afterwards.